MXN Market Musings: “Shake It Off” Approach for the Mexican Economy
We expect USD/MXN to trade sideways on a six-month view; however, we expect the range to widen to 18.2—18.8, albeit with bumps in the road.
Mexican Economy at a Glance
Mexico’s economy is mixed and developing, although still one of the largest economies in not just Latin America, but the world. Bank of Mexico (BdeM, Banxico) is the country’s central bank, guiding the country’s economic policy.
Gross Domestic Product
- Nominal GDP per capita, 2025: $13,967
- Nominal GDP ranking per capita, 2025: 72nd
- Purchasing power parity (PPP)-adjusted GDP per capita, 2025: $25,463
- PPP-adjusted GDP ranking per capita, 2025: 78th
- GDP growth rate, 2025: 1.0%
Data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Trading Partners & Memberships
- Mexican import trading partners: United States, China, South Korea, Germany, Japan
- Mexican export trading partners: United States, Canada, China, Germany, Brazil
- Mexican memberships & forums: OECD, WTO, United-States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), Central America-Mexico FTA (Free Trade Agreement Between the United Mexican States and the Republics of Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua), FTA EU-MX (Free Trade Agreement Between Mexico and the European Union)
Unemployment Rates
- National, 2025: 2.9%
- Data from IMF.
Consumption Expenditure
- Government final consumption expenditure, 2024: 81.5% of GDP
- Household and Non-profit institutions serving households (NPISHs) final consumption expenditure, 2024: 1.9% of GDP
Data from the World Bank.
2025 Mexican Economic Outlook: Economic Developments & Trends
- Continued slowing of Mexico GDP growth due to factors like tariffs and slowing private investments
- Economic growth expected to recover in 2026 after slight short-term inflation rate increases
- Federal monetary policy may favor further interest rate cuts
- Energy sector will need to heavily invest in infrastructure to meet renewable energy pledges
- Consumer prices will increase as the rate of increases slows
- Labor force participation continues to increase while participation rate slows compared to recent years
- US-Mexico trade tensions continue with strong U.S. tariffs on North American trading partners
- Steady increases in public debt expected to continue into the first quarter of 2026
- Remittances continue to be a major contributor of foreign income
- Expanding investments outside North America, particularly in Asia
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