Will President Trump’s Argentine beef tariff quota tactics move the needle on beef prices?
And here it is. Looking to lower US beef prices, the White House proposed moving the tariff rate quota for Argentine beef imports into the United States from 20,000 metric tons to 80,000 metric tons. The move could increase Argentine beef imports to the US market at time when supply constraints in the US cattle herd have combined with strong consumer demand to keep the price of beef high.
The move is detailed in this news article from Reuters:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-quadrupling-argentina-beef-tariff-145416836.html
The change to allow more foreign beef into the US market is designed to lower consumer prices but it hasn’t been landing well with US cattle ranchers.
On the heels of this news, three questions probably come to mind for the US cattle industry.
- With the larger beef tariff rate quota, can Argentina ship that much beef to the United States?
- Even with the larger beef tariff rate quota, will Argentina ship that much beef to the United States?
- If Argentina does ship the full beef tariff rate quota, what does it mean for US beef supplies?
With the larger beef tariff rate quota, can Argentina ship that much beef to the United States?
Argentina absolutely can ship that much beef to the US market. Over the last 20 years, Argentina beef exports averaged 463,500 metric tons. In the last five years, that volume has been 760,000 metric tons. This suggests the US could take up to ~10 percent of Argentina beef exports tariff free if US beef buyers desire.
Even with the larger beef tariff rate quota, will Argentina ship that much beef to the United States?
The second question is trickier. Over the last 20 years, the US received an average of 11,625 metric tons of Argentinian beef annually. In the last five years, that average has increased to 24,630 metric tons. This is all based on Trade Data Monitor data, and the US Customs office shows that Argentina filled its beef tariff rate quota every year since 2020.
That may alarm some into thinking the tariff rate quota increase for Argentine beef is a big deal, but understand that China is the largest destination for Argentina’s beef. Pre 2013, the China market was less than 1 percent of Argentina’s beef exports. China shipments have been around 60 percent of Argentina’s global beef sales since 2019. The US by comparison has only received around 3 percent of Argentina’s exports in that time. Below is the ranked list of markets that received more than 1 percent of Argentina’s beef exports over the last 5 years.
| China | 60.4 percent |
| Russia | 5.6 percent |
| Hong Kong | 4.3 percent |
| Israel | 4.1 percent |
| Confidential | 3.8 percent |
| Chile | 3.4 percent |
| Germany | 3.0 percent |
| United States | 2.6 percent |
| Netherlands | 1.8 percent |
| Thailand | 1.7 percent |
| Brazil | 1.5 percent |
| Peru | 1.5 percent |
| Ghana | 1.4 percent |
If we take 80,000 metric tons of beef annually from Argentina, the US can move to second on the list since our consumers can easily bid the Argentine beef product away from all those competitors economically speaking. The US is the strongest beef demand market on the globe. All else equal, you could argue the same should happen with Australia, New Zealand and Brazil beef exports to some extent. It doesn’t always work that way.
- The US is a top 5 global market for Australian beef exports over the last 10 years. More often than not, it is a top 3 battle with Japan, China, South Korea and the US. But, it floats around. Currently, the US is the top destination easily.
- For New Zealand beef exports, it is top 2 battle between the US and China annually.
- The best model for what could happen with Argentina is Brazil. The US is a distant second destination after China. In fact, with Brazil not having a beef trade agreement with the US, they are at a 26.7 percent tariff on anything beyond 65,005 metric tons from all non-FTA beef importers, plus an additional 40 percent tariff. We’ve effectively shut them out of the US market. Argentina probably fills their beef tariff quota simply on market share captured from Brazil today.
And this leads to answering the third question to some extent.
If Argentina does ship the full beef tariff rate quota, what does it mean to US beef supplies?
Yes, there is enough of a market for Argentina to fill its expanded US beef tariff rate quota, but all of these issues are relative. Nothing happens in isolation—as much as economists like to use the term “all else equal.”
In absolute terms, this adjustment will lead to a 60,000 metric ton increase in Argentinian beef in the US beef market annually assuming the US and Argentina will exhaust the tariff rate quota as it moves to 80,000 metric tons. If “all else is equal,” it is a 0.5 percent increase in annual beef supplies in the US market. But, remember those Brazilian beef imports. We should assume Brazilian beef imports are effectively 0 metric tons annually as long as the additional 40 percent tariff rate holds.
Over the last 12 months (Aug 2024-July 2025), they were at 341,000 metric tons if I’m tracking Trade Data Monitor data correctly. But some of that is inflated as they rushed to get ahead of the tariff increase. So, let’s be conservative and just use the 2024 number at 216,000 metric tons. Then, you could say the US may still be looking for an additional 150,000 metric tons of beef imports to make up for the Brazil shortfall.
Brazil was a source of more than 100,000 metric tons of US beef imports annually from 2021-2023, and the last two years (including Jan-Jul 2025), that total is on top of 200,000 metric tons. Argentina is simply going to replace a chunk of that, assuming Brazil continues to get locked out of the US beef market, and for that reason, this probably doesn’t move the needle much from a US beef market standpoint. In fact, it still leaves the US beef market looking for more lean grinding beef for 2026.
Longer term, I’m more interested in the quote from Agriculture Secretary Rollins in this article.
“There is frustration on both sides. And I was with the president yesterday and he is very, very frustrated because (of) everything he’s done to cut taxes, to bring down costs,” Agriculture Secretary Rollins said.
Reading between the lines, President Donald Trump and the US cattle producer are certainly not friendly with each other right now. And with the active CME live cattle futures contract down nearly $8/cwt. last week, the market didn’t like the extra volatility surrounding beef trade uncertainty either.
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