Global Aquaculture Supply Update 2H 2025: A Time of High Volatility, But Strong Supply-side Factors
The aquaculture industry (including hatcheries, fisheries, and aquaculture equipment manufacturers) faces volatility and possible trade flow shifts in 2H 2025, driven by US tariffs and uncertain demand. Supply-side dynamics, however, are strong.
Article Highlights & Key 2H 2025 Trends
US Tariffs Impact Global Markets
In the second half of 2025, global seafood markets may be influenced by macroeconomic pressures and evolving trade dynamics.
In the US, elevated tariffs and persistent inflation are expected to constrain consumer purchasing power, which could reduce the amount of aquatic animals purchased for human consumption. This outlook could prompt exporters to shift their focus toward more stable and receptive markets, such as the European Union.
Ongoing uncertainty around US trade policy could continue to weigh on demand expectations, particularly for high-value farmed species like salmon and shrimp.
Global Aquaculture Production Trends
Global salmon production is projected to continue expanding, primarily driven by a strong recovery in Chile. In contrast, Norway may face biological and environmental challenges such as elevated sea temperatures and algal blooms, which could constrain output. The future of Norway’s supply could rest on implementing sustainability and fish welfare-related regulations to address these constraints.In the shrimp sector, the positive momentum observed earlier in the year may give way to a more cautious production strategy, as producers like Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, Ecuador, and India aim to avoid oversupply conditions that could place downward pressure on prices. India, for example, may reduce stocking activity due to high temperatures, rising input costs, and ongoing tariff uncertainty, while Ecuador’s export growth could slow if US demand weakens under trade pressure.
Partial Relief from the Fish Feeder Sectors
Amid broader market volatility, the feed sector may provide the fish farming and larger aquaculture industry with partial relief from macroeconomic pressures. For instance, Peru’s anchovy quota is the highest in seven years, driven by favorable oceanic conditions. It is expected to support strong fish meal and fish oil supply in the second half of 2025. Although soymeal prices are trending lower, good demand from aquaculture projects, particularly salmon farming, could help maintain fish meal prices above long-term averages. This relative stability in feed costs may help offset some of the financial strain from tariffs and softening demand, offering modest support to industry margins in the months ahead.
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